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Is the war actually ending? Diplomats say 90% of the deal is done. But on the ground, the reality is more complex. Here are 5 hard truths about the current peace talks.
1. The “Percentage” Illusion
Hearing that a deal is “90% agreed” sounds great, but in geopolitics, the last 10% is usually the hardest part (territory, enforcement). Without that, the 90% means nothing.
2. Russia Isn’t in the Room
The optimistic quotes came from a meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump. There has been no public confirmation that Russia—the other combatant—has agreed to this 20-point framework.
3. The Donbas Deadlock
While security guarantees are discussed, the status of Donetsk and Luhansk remains the elephant in the room. Neither side has signaled a willingness to concede on sovereignty here.
4. Security Guarantees = ?
Ukraine wants NATO-style protection (“Article 5”). The West is hesitant to commit to automatic war. Until this gap closes, any “agreement” is just paper.
5. Fighting Hasn’t Stopped
Usually, when peace is imminent, violence drops. Currently, missile strikes and frontline combat continue. This suggests the “peace” is still a political concept, not a military reality.
#UkraineRussiaWar #Geopolitics #Zelenskyy #Trump #PeaceTalks #RealityCheck
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