Pakistan today presents a paradox. On the surface, daily life appears to continue as normal. Yet beneath this appearance lies deep political instability, institutional collapse, and an unprecedented concentration of power within the military establishment. The fall of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and the rise of Army Chief Asim Munir capture this transformation more clearly than any single event.
This article examines how Pakistan moved from a contested civilian political system to near-total military dominance, why Imran Khan remains politically relevant despite imprisonment, and what these developments mean for regional security, particularly for India. The analysis draws on public reporting, parliamentary developments, military restructuring, and regional diplomatic shifts.
AdvertisementFor a quick summary, read our Neural Explainer on Pakistan’s Power Shift.
What Changed in Pakistan’s Political Structure
Imran Khan, once the most visible civilian leader in Pakistan, is now incarcerated and facing more than 100 legal cases. Several carry sentences that could keep him in prison for over a decade. Despite this, he remains the most recognisable political symbol in the country, especially among urban middle-class voters in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
At the same time, Pakistan’s civilian government has been hollowed out. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif continues in office, but decision-making authority has shifted decisively to the military. The army now directly influences internal security, foreign policy, economic assets, and legislative direction.
The Military’s Consolidation Under Asim Munir
Asim Munir’s rise has been rapid and structural. Within three years, he has consolidated authority across all branches of the armed forces by assuming the role of Chief of Defence Staff. This effectively integrates the army, air force, and navy under a single command structure.
Legal amendments and institutional changes have further expanded military influence. The army now exerts control over strategic industries, including fertiliser production and potentially Pakistan International Airlines. These moves have strengthened the military’s financial autonomy while weakening civilian oversight.
Following Operation Sindoor and heightened regional tensions, Munir emerged politically stronger despite operational setbacks. Civilian leadership remains subordinate, functioning largely as a public-facing layer rather than a governing authority.
Imran Khan’s Role After Removal From Power
Imran Khan’s political role has shifted from governance to symbolism. While his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), has been heavily suppressed, it has not disappeared. PTI candidates contested elections as independents and still secured significant support despite reported electoral manipulation.
The military has sought to delegitimise Khan by portraying him as unstable and unfit for leadership. However, this strategy has not eliminated his appeal. In many households and urban centres, political discussion still revolves around Khan, reflecting deep dissatisfaction with Pakistan’s political system.
There are indications of an informal understanding: Khan remains politically neutralised but alive, visible, and financially secure, without any role in governance. This arrangement preserves stability for the military while preventing mass unrest.
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Pakistan’s Economic and External Pressures
Pakistan’s economy remains heavily dependent on external support. IMF loans and Saudi financial assistance are essential for short-term survival. Saudi Arabia continues to provide emergency deposits, energy support, and political cover, while also maintaining defence cooperation with Pakistan’s military.
China’s engagement has declined sharply. Several China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects have stalled. The Gwadar commercial airport stands completed but largely unused due to security concerns, including attacks on Chinese nationals.
The United States maintains transactional engagement, focused primarily on access to critical minerals and limited strategic cooperation. Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan have worsened, with Taliban-linked groups conducting attacks inside Pakistani territory.
Implications for India-Pakistan Relations
India-Pakistan relations are at their lowest point since both became nuclear-armed states. The Pahalgam strike and India’s subsequent military response marked a clear shift in posture. Limited military exchanges, drone activity, and missile signalling have replaced earlier restraint.
Key agreements such as the Shimla Agreement and Indus Waters Treaty are effectively suspended. The Line of Control now functions more as a symbolic boundary than a stabilising mechanism.
India has publicly stated that future terror attacks originating from Pakistan will be treated as acts of war. Pakistan’s internal instability increases the likelihood that its military may use external conflict as a diversionary tactic.
What This Means Going Forward
Pakistan’s political system is now centred on military authority, with civilian institutions weakened beyond repair. While this structure may provide short-term control, it deepens long-term instability.
For India, direct intervention to stabilise Pakistan is neither feasible nor desirable. The realistic approach lies in deterrence, strategic patience, and strengthening regional partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, Gulf, and Afghanistan.
Any miscalculation carries severe risks. Pakistan has little left to lose internally, making escalation unpredictable. Managing this volatility requires restraint backed by credible defensive capacity.
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